Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts as Middle East supply disruption stretches further than the bank assumed. Goldman now sees Brent crude — the international benchmark — averaging about $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter, up from $80, and US WTI at $83, up from $75. The bank pushed back its assumption for the normalisation of Middle East exports from mid-May to the end of June, and estimated the crisis cut oil inventories by up to 12 million barrels a day in April.
Brent traded above $106 a barrel on Monday and is up more than 20 per cent since 17 April, when US-Iran peace talks stalled and Washington enforced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz alongside Iran's own. Brent peaked near $120 in early March. Crucially, the curve still slopes downward — December Brent futures sit around $84.80 — meaning the market expects the disruption to fade. Goldman warns of long-term "scarring" of about 500,000 barrels a day of Gulf production capacity, mostly in Iraq.
Despite the spike, equity markets have rallied: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed at record highs on Friday on strong corporate earnings. Goldman cautions that the economic fallout will be larger than the headline price suggests, given product shortages and the unprecedented scale of the shock, and flags the risk of US oil export restrictions that could widen the gap between Brent and WTI. Source: Financial Times, 27 April 2026, William Sandlund.