The United Arab Emirates announced on Tuesday it will leave Opec, stripping the 66-year-old oil cartel of its third-largest producer and one of its most influential members. Brent crude rose for a seventh consecutive day, but the move was driven by fears around the closure of the Strait of Hormuz rather than the UAE’s exit, a signal of how far Opec’s market influence has eroded.
Excluding the UAE, Opec produced around a quarter of the world’s oil last year, down from roughly half at its peak. The wider Opec+ group still accounts for around 40% of global output. Tensions with Saudi Arabia date back almost a decade: Abu Dhabi has been pushing to expand its production capacity from 3 to 5 million barrels per day (originally targeted for 2030, then accelerated to 2027), repeatedly clashed over its quota, and was accused by Saudi-aligned voices of “naughty boy” over-production. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait still account for more than half of Opec output, but Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz — through which one-fifth of global oil normally passes — has further diluted the cartel’s leverage.
Indonesia, Qatar, Ecuador and Angola have all left Opec in recent years; the UAE’s departure is unlikely to be “fatal”, say analysts, but a follow-on by Venezuela, Iraq or Iran would significantly weaken the bloc. UBS analysts expect the move to weigh on long-term oil prices as the UAE produces more freely. Source: Financial Times, 29 April 2026, Verity Ratcliffe and Malcolm Moore.