Gas: the Middle East war is set to keep markets tight for at least two more years
Source · Energy desk
— Summary
The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its first quarterly report covering the Iran war, estimates that global liquefied natural gas (LNG) production — gas cooled to about -160°C so it can be shipped by tanker — fell 8 per cent in March. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz removed roughly 20 per cent of LNG volumes from world markets. Loadings from Qatar and the UAE collapsed by 9.5 billion cubic metres year-on-year in March, almost their entire production.
North America partly absorbed the shock. The Plaquemines liquefaction plant in Louisiana ramped up between October 2025 and February 2026, alone contributing half of global supply growth; total capacity rose 12 per cent and actual trade by 9.5 per cent (28 billion cubic metres). Asia took the brunt of the disruption — 85 per cent of Qatari and Emirati gas went to Asia in 2025: Pakistan's imports fell 70 per cent, China's 30 per cent. Asian spot prices jumped 55 per cent in March, against 35 per cent in Europe.
The IEA projects that the "new wave" of global LNG supply expected before 2030 will be delayed by at least two years. Qatar, heavily damaged, would need four years to return to the levels previously planned. Every additional month of Hormuz closure would cut global LNG supply by another 10 billion cubic metres. Source: Les Echos, 24 April 2026, Nicolas Rauline.
Gas: the Middle East war is set to keep markets tight for at least two more years
The story in one line: the IEA estimates the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already removed 20 per cent of global LNG supply, and that the “new wave” of supply expected by 2027-2030 will be delayed by at least two years.
Key numbers
-8%: global LNG production in March year-on-year.
20%: share of global LNG supply removed by the Hormuz closure.
-9.5 bcm: Qatar + UAE loadings in March year-on-year, almost their entire production.
-10 bcm: extra global supply lost per additional month of Hormuz closure.
Asia: -70% in Pakistan, -30% in China in LNG imports; 85% of Qatari and Emirati gas went to Asia in 2025.
+55% in Asia / +35% in Europe: spot gas price jumps in March.
4 years: estimated time for Qatar to return to expected production levels.
Why it matters
Three reads. First, the gas market is becoming bipolar: North America — Plaquemines in Louisiana, Corpus Christi in Texas, two new Canadian trains — captured 90 per cent of new capacity last winter. Second, Asia is bearing the bulk of the shock, with knock-on effects on industrial policy and coal use. Third, the delay to the “new wave” means the price-decline scenario the market had priced in for 2027-2030 is being pushed back: the IEA notes that post-Hormuz restart “is measured in weeks, not days”, because liquefaction trains have to be cooled and restarted.
Takeaway
For European industry, the gas bill stays elevated for a long time. Watch the trajectory of North American projects and Qatar’s actual recovery schedule — Qatar is the pivot of the global LNG market.
Source: Les Echos, 24 April 2026, Nicolas Rauline.