Oil prices set for more turbulence in months ahead, warns Gunvor chief
Source · Energy desk
— Summary
Oil markets face more turbulence as Middle East tensions collide with a seasonal dip in demand, Gary Pedersen, the new head of Gunvor, told the FT. The International Energy Agency expects global demand to drop by 1.5mn barrels a day in the second quarter - the biggest fall since the Covid-19 pandemic - while OPEC projects a more modest 500,000 b/d decline. Pedersen warned that prices could be driven more by headlines than by underlying supply and demand during April to June.
Gunvor, the world's fourth-largest independent oil trader, generated more than $1.6bn of gross profits in Q1 2026 - matching its entire 2025 total. Pedersen, who took over following a management buyout in December, said the firm had prepared for the Iran conflict by reviewing risk exposures ahead of the war and has traded throughout, including buying "significant volumes" released from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Gunvor has focused on moving physical oil rather than derivatives, to minimise "stress risk" from extreme price swings.
The company is emerging from a turbulent period in which Washington labelled it a "Kremlin puppet" and blocked it from acquiring overseas assets from Russia's Lukoil, culminating in the departure of owner Torbjörn Törnqvist and the management buyout. The US is now Gunvor's main focus, holding more than $4bn of assets and accounting for roughly a third of its trading. Pedersen has signalled interest in buying refining assets. The buyout left him and partners owing several billion dollars to Törnqvist, tied to his 86% stake in the $6bn company. Source: Financial Times, 20 April 2026, Malcolm Moore.
The story in one line. Gunvor’s new CEO Gary Pedersen expects oil markets to be “very choppy” through Q2 as seasonal weakness collides with Iran-war headlines, after Gunvor already matched its entire 2025 profit in Q1 alone.
Key numbers
1.5mn b/d forecast Q2 drop in oil demand (IEA) - biggest since Covid
500,000 b/d OPEC’s more modest demand-drop forecast
December 2025 management buyout after pressure from Washington
86% Törnqvist’s stake in the $6bn company at his exit
$6bn Gunvor’s valuation at the buyout
$4bn+ of US assets; US now ~1/3 of Gunvor’s trading
“Several billion dollars” owed by management to Törnqvist, repayable over a decade
Why it matters
Oil trading houses like Gunvor, Vitol, Trafigura and Mercuria were the most visible winners of the 2022-24 energy-crisis cycle, earning record profits. 2025 was quieter, but 2026’s first quarter shows that the combination of the Iran war and OPEC-supply dynamics has reopened the volatility window. Pedersen’s message is operational - focus on physical barrels, measure stress risk daily, expect headline-driven moves - and reflects the lessons of 2022 when many traders got caught by sudden price surges.
Takeaway
Gunvor is rebuilding after a politically damaging stretch: Washington labelled it a “Kremlin puppet”, the company lost a potential Lukoil asset deal, and Törnqvist exited. The new model is analytical (Pedersen comes from hedge fund Millennium), US-centric, and physical rather than derivative. If refineries can be bought at reasonable prices, expect Gunvor to be a buyer - closures in western markets have created opportunity.
Source: Financial Times, 20 April 2026, Malcolm Moore.