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Can EVs kill off petrol cars in China?

— Summary

China's electric vehicle revolution has reached an inflection point: last year, EVs including plug-in hybrids matched petrol cars in annual sales at 13.9 million units each, out of 27.8 million total, according to Shanghai-based consultancy Automobility. Five years earlier, petrol cars outsold EVs 23.9 million to just 1.3 million. The surge in lower-tier cities is now driven by BYD and Geely's cheaper plug-in hybrids and by a massive state-led charging build-out.

China's central government has launched a three-year plan to lift public charging facilities from 21 million at the start of this year to 28 million by the end of next year — enough to support 80 million EVs, up from the more than 50 million already on the road. State media estimates the plan will generate about $28bn in equipment and construction spend. Research into range and charging speed is intensifying: CATL, the world's largest battery maker, this week unveiled cells powering a car for 1,500km on a single charge.

Fuel price rises after the US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February have added a new tailwind to EV demand, according to local dealers. Analysts including HSBC's Yuqian Ding expect lower-tier consumers to follow tier-one and tier-two trends but gravitate toward affordable local brands. Source: Financial Times, 22 April 2026.

The story in one line. China’s EVs (including plug-in hybrids) caught petrol cars in annual sales last year — and the state’s three-year charging build-out plus a post-Iran fuel shock are pulling the crossover forward.

Key numbers

  • 27.8 million total car sales in China last year
  • 13.9 million EVs vs 13.9 million petrol — a dead heat
  • Five years earlier: 23.9 million petrol vs 1.3 million EVs
  • Chargers: 21mn → 28mn (target end of next year), enough for 80mn EVs
  • >50mn EVs already on Chinese roads
  • ~$28bn estimated three-year charging-plan spend
  • CATL cells for 1,500km on a single charge

Why it matters

The 50/50 split in a single year is the first data point that makes “peak petrol car in China” a base-case rather than a bull-case forecast. What sustains it is the combination of state infrastructure (charging) and market forces (cheaper BYD/Geely hybrids, Iran-era fuel prices). That combination is specifically Chinese — it doesn’t automatically export to Europe or the US.

Takeaway

The crossover happened in 2025. The next question is how fast petrol-car sales shrink from their 13.9mn level. If BYD and Geely keep delivering sub-$20k plug-in hybrids and the charger plan executes, lower-tier cities — where hundreds of millions of future buyers live — will tip toward EVs within a single product cycle.

Source: Financial Times, 22 April 2026.

Further reading

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