Pro-Russia ex-president claims victory in Bulgaria's elections
Source · Geopolitics desk
— Summary
Russia-friendly former Bulgarian president Rumen Radev is on course to win Bulgaria's parliamentary elections outright, in a result that could stabilise the country's politics after eight snap votes in five years but push the EU and Nato member closer to Moscow. His leftist Progressive Bulgaria (PB) bloc is projected to take more than 43 per cent of the vote and 129 of 240 seats, according to independent results from pollster AlphaResearch. Official final results are due Monday. Radev stepped down as president in January to run for prime minister.
The centre-right GERB party of former premier Boyko Borisov is projected to win only 40 seats, its junior partner — the DPS of US- and UK-sanctioned oligarch Delyan Peevski — 23 seats. The liberal We Continue the Change (PP-DB) is on 36 seats; far-right pro-Russia Revival falls to 12 (from 33). Together with PP-DB, PB would hold the constitutional supermajority needed to overhaul the judiciary in one of the EU's most corrupt countries. Radev focused on anti-corruption and has refused coalition talks with Borisov or Peevski.
Radev has been reluctant to condemn Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, criticised EU sanctions, tried to stop Bulgaria's Eurozone accession (which took effect this January) and said he wants to "restore relations with Russia". Valérie Hayer of Renew Europe called him "Putin's Trojan horse". Analysts note, however, that Bulgaria's strong reliance on EU funds, pro-European opposition in parliament and a split electorate make a full Orbán-style turn toward Moscow unlikely. Population: just under 6.7mn. Source: Financial Times, 19 April 2026, Marton Dunai.
The story in one line. Russia-friendly former president Rumen Radev is on track to win an outright majority in Bulgaria’s parliament, potentially ending five years of electoral chaos but pulling an EU and Nato member toward Moscow.
Key numbers
Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria (PB): projected >43% of the vote, 129 of 240 seats (AlphaResearch).
GERB (Boyko Borisov, centre-right): 40 seats.
DPS (US- and UK-sanctioned oligarch Delyan Peevski): 23 seats.
We Continue the Change (PP-DB) (liberal, pro-west): 36 seats.
Revival (far-right, pro-Russia): 12 seats, down from 33.
Snap elections: this is Bulgaria’s 8th in 5 years; Radev quit the presidency in January to run.
Bulgaria joined the Eurozone in January 2026 and Schengen just over a year ago.
Population: just under 6.7 million.
Why it matters
Bulgaria matters at the margin for European security: it exports significant ammunition to Ukraine and sits along one of central Europe’s main energy corridors. A Radev government that genuinely tilts toward Moscow could slow both flows and give the Kremlin a second loud sceptic inside the EU (alongside Hungary, though Orbán lost last week). A PB+PP-DB supermajority would, on the other hand, allow the kind of judicial reform Bulgaria has needed to address corruption — the country is ranked among the EU’s most corrupt. The contradictory appeal of Radev’s campaign (anti-graft + pro-Russia) is the central uncertainty.
Market-relevant caveats: Bulgaria depends on EU funds and joined the euro only four months ago. Analysts at AlphaResearch and the Center for the Study of Democracy expect Radev to moderate rather than tilt fully toward Moscow, because his electorate is split and a strong pro-European opposition will sit in parliament.
Takeaway
Expect a sovereign risk repricing at the margin — not a Hungary-style regime break. The real test is whether PB and PP-DB can cooperate on judicial reform while diverging on Russia. Until they do, the result is political stability without a settled foreign-policy direction.
Source: Financial Times, 19 April 2026, Marton Dunai.