London metals hit record as Iran war pushes aluminium into a supply 'black hole'
Source · Commodities desk
— Summary
Record high for metals in London: the LMEX index of the London Metal Exchange, which tracks six major industrial metals, hit an all-time high on Thursday, driven above all by aluminium made precious by the Iran war. The index has gained close to 12 per cent over four weeks. Despite the persistent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the spike in energy costs and global growth fears, prices are supported by hopes of an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire and early signs of de-escalation. Aluminium and copper together account for nearly three-quarters of the index.
Aluminium is the main driver: its price has jumped more than 15 per cent since the start of the Iran war and touched a four-year high in London on Thursday before easing slightly on Friday to around $3,629 per tonne, according to Bloomberg. The market tightened sharply after strikes hit key Gulf capacity: the Middle East accounts for about one-tenth of global production, and JP Morgan describes a "black hole" of supply following Iranian strikes on two major smelters in Abu Dhabi and Bahrain. LME aluminium stocks have fallen back below 400,000 tonnes, well below levels seen a few years ago; part of that metal is of Russian origin, which limits its usability for some Western buyers. Wood Mackenzie estimates there is "no way to avoid a significant deficit in the global aluminium market over the next eighteen months", with a shortfall potentially reaching 4 million tonnes this year.
Copper is also contributing to the LMEX's rise — up 11 per cent over four weeks — but for different reasons: the return of Chinese buyers and expectations around possible US tariff decisions. It was trading around $13,270 per tonne on Friday, close to its closing record of January; Mercuria and BMO Capital Markets expect it could break that level in the coming weeks. Source: Les Echos, 17 April 2026, Samir Touzani.
The story in one line. The LMEX index of the London Metal Exchange hit an all-time high, driven by aluminium’s surge following Iranian strikes on Gulf smelters and by copper’s rebound on electrification demand and China.
Key numbers
LMEX index:+12% over four weeks, all-time high on Thursday; aluminium and copper together make up nearly three-quarters of the index.
Aluminium:+15%+ since the start of the Iran war; four-year high on Thursday in London; $3,629/tonne on Friday.
Middle East share of global aluminium output:~10%; Iranian strikes hit two major smelters in Abu Dhabi and Bahrain.
LME aluminium stocks: below 400,000 tonnes, well below prior levels; partly of Russian origin.
Expected 2026 deficit (Wood Mackenzie): up to 4 million tonnes, difficult to close within 18 months.
Copper:+11% over four weeks; $13,270/tonne on Friday, close to its closing record of January.
Why it matters
The LMEX (London Metal Exchange Index) is a weighted index tracking six major industrial metals — aluminium, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, tin. When it hits a record, it is an aggregate thermometer of global industrial supply-chain stress. Here the reading is twofold: a direct supply shock on aluminium (Iranian strikes knocked out key Gulf capacity, the region supplying one-tenth of global output), and a structural shock on copper (electrification, grids, data centres, US tariff speculation).
The 400,000 tonnes of LME stock matter: stocks drawing down during a projected 4mn-tonne annual shortfall means price is the only adjustment variable. The Russian constraint — part of available metal is Russian-origin and unusable by Western sanctioned buyers — makes truly usable stock even tighter than the headline number suggests.
Takeaway
Two engines, two horizons. On aluminium, price tracks the diplomatic calendar — a held ceasefire and a negotiated exit would bring Gulf supply back sooner than Wood Mackenzie’s 18-month framing. On copper, the tightness is structural and demand-led: the International Energy Agency already flagged it in early March. The two curves will not move on the same news.