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Commodities April 17, 2026

London metals hit record as Iran war pushes aluminium into a supply 'black hole'

Summary

Record high for metals in London: the LMEX index of the London Metal Exchange, which tracks six major industrial metals, hit an all-time high on Thursday, driven above all by aluminium made precious by the Iran war. The index has gained close to 12 per cent over four weeks. Despite the persistent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the spike in energy costs and global growth fears, prices are supported by hopes of an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire and early signs of de-escalation. Aluminium and copper together account for nearly three-quarters of the index.

Aluminium is the main driver: its price has jumped more than 15 per cent since the start of the Iran war and touched a four-year high in London on Thursday before easing slightly on Friday to around $3,629 per tonne, according to Bloomberg. The market tightened sharply after strikes hit key Gulf capacity: the Middle East accounts for about one-tenth of global production, and JP Morgan describes a "black hole" of supply following Iranian strikes on two major smelters in Abu Dhabi and Bahrain. LME aluminium stocks have fallen back below 400,000 tonnes, well below levels seen a few years ago; part of that metal is of Russian origin, which limits its usability for some Western buyers. Wood Mackenzie estimates there is "no way to avoid a significant deficit in the global aluminium market over the next eighteen months", with a shortfall potentially reaching 4 million tonnes this year.

Copper is also contributing to the LMEX's rise — up 11 per cent over four weeks — but for different reasons: the return of Chinese buyers and expectations around possible US tariff decisions. It was trading around $13,270 per tonne on Friday, close to its closing record of January; Mercuria and BMO Capital Markets expect it could break that level in the coming weeks. Source: Les Echos, 17 April 2026, Samir Touzani.