Barry Callebaut cuts profit forecast, shares fall over 15% as cocoa prices tumble
Source · Food & Beverage desk
— Summary
Swiss group Barry Callebaut, the world's largest chocolate processor, cut its profit forecast and warned of the impact of falling cocoa prices, industry overcapacity and supply disruptions, sending its shares down more than 15%. The Zurich-based company now expects EBIT (earnings before interest and tax — the core operating profit) to fall by a "mid-teens" percentage in the current financial year, reversing earlier guidance for growth and underscoring the scale of the challenge facing new chief executive Hein Schumacher, who took over in January.
In the first half, recurring EBIT fell 4.2% to SFr310.9mn ($397mn) in local currencies, and sales volumes declined 6.9% to 1.01mn tonnes — though the group said this outperformed the broader market. Schumacher blamed "the unique speed of the cocoa price market decrease combined with a competitive overcapacity market, volume declines and supply disruption". Barry Callebaut sells most of its chocolate under contracts that pass cocoa costs through to customers: it buys cocoa months ahead, so when prices fall fast it is still working through expensive stock while charging customers less. The company also flagged supply-chain disruption linked to the Iran war and a temporary factory closure in Canada.
Jon Cox at Kepler Cheuvreux called it "more of a reset under the new chief executive" and pointed to structural pressures on demand, including GLP-1 weight-loss drugs ("In a GLP-1 world, how much will chocolate volumes still grow?"). Retail chocolate prices are still up about 10% year-on-year, weighing on consumption. Volumes should recover in H2; full-year decline is now forecast at 1–3%. Cocoa prices have more than halved in recent months. The stock had gained over 55% in the past year before Thursday's fall. Source: Financial Times, 16 April 2026, Susannah Savage.
The story in one line: New CEO Hein Schumacher’s first guidance update at Barry Callebaut, the world’s biggest chocolate processor, swings from “growth” to “mid-teens decline” in EBIT — a cocoa-price whiplash combined with weak demand that the market read as a structural reset.
Key numbers
Shares down more than 15% on the day.
FY EBIT now guided to fall by a mid-teens percentage (previously: growth).
H1 recurring EBIT: SFr310.9mn ($397mn), down 4.2% in local currencies.
Sales volumes: 1.01mn tonnes, down 6.9% (said to outperform the market).
Cocoa prices more than halved in recent months.
Full-year volume decline now guided at 1–3% (vs more pessimistic prior reads).
Retail chocolate prices still up ~10% year-on-year.
Stock had risen over 55% in the past year before the drop.
Why it matters
Barry Callebaut’s business model passes cocoa costs through to chocolate customers, so when spot cocoa collapses the company has to lower prices — but its inventory was bought at higher levels months earlier. That timing mismatch compresses margins. Layer on (1) industry overcapacity now that everyone built for peak cocoa, (2) weak end-consumer demand because retail chocolate prices are still 10% higher year-on-year, and (3) Iran war–related supply-chain disruption plus a temporary Canadian factory closure, and the “mid-teens” EBIT cut is the arithmetic result.
Jon Cox at Kepler Cheuvreux framed it as a “reset” rather than cyclical noise, and flagged GLP-1 weight-loss drugs as a longer-term threat to chocolate volumes. That is the bearish read: a structurally smaller chocolate market.
Takeaway
Schumacher is front-loading the bad news in his first guidance — classic new-CEO behaviour. The near-term question is whether H2 volume recovery materialises and retail prices finally adjust down to unlock demand. The longer-term question Cox raises — GLP-1s versus high-volume chocolate — is the one to watch for anyone holding Barry Callebaut, Nestlé, Mondelez or any cocoa-levered name.
Source: Financial Times, 16 April 2026, Susannah Savage.