M&A: 22 'megadeals' in Q1 2026 beat the 2015 record despite macro fears
Source · Mergers & Acquisitions desk
— Summary
Corporate dealmaking is breaking records despite a volatile macro backdrop. 22 M&A transactions worth more than $10 billion each were agreed in Q1 2026, according to London Stock Exchange Group data, beating the previous record of 21 in Q4 2015. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase both reported strong Q1 results helped by M&A fees, and Bill Ackman's Pershing Square this month tabled a $55 billion offer for Universal Music.
Drivers include Donald Trump's rollback of Joe Biden's strict antitrust enforcement, defensive consolidation against AI disruption, and corporate strategies to expand in Europe or deepen a US footprint amid tariff frictions. Clouds are forming though: Goldman's investment-banking backlog (the pipeline of expected fees from announced but unclosed deals) has fallen from record levels, and JPMorgan's CFO said Middle East developments 'could have an impact on deal execution and timing'.
The FT editorial board cautions that history is unforgiving: research over 40 years shows 70% to 75% of acquisitions fail. The 2015 cohort offers mixed lessons — Shell's takeover of BG Group largely delivered, but Charter/Time Warner Cable saddled shareholders with pain, AB InBev's SABMiller debt constrained it for years, and Kraft Heinz, 2015's signature deal, is now being split up and remains the decade's marquee failure. Boards, the FT warns, should 'think carefully, or risk making their investors pay'. Source: Financial Times, 15 April 2026, The editorial board.
The story in one line: Q1 2026 produced more $10bn-plus M&A transactions than any quarter on record, as boards seize on a looser US antitrust regime and a weaker dollar — while the FT editorial board warns history is unkind to serial dealmakers.
Key numbers
22 deals >$10bn in Q1 2026 (LSEG data) — previous record: 21 in Q4 2015.
$55bn: Pershing Square’s proposed offer for Universal Music.
70% to 75% of acquisitions fail, per 40-year research.
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase reported strong Q1 results bolstered by M&A fees.
Goldman’s investment-banking backlog down from record levels.
2015 signature failure: Kraft Heinz, now being split.
Why it matters
Deal pace reflects three tailwinds: a looser US antitrust stance under Trump, corporate moves to consolidate against AI disruption, and cross-border strategy under tariff pressure. But the 2015 playbook also shows the hangover: AB InBev’s leverage from the SABMiller deal, Charter Communications’ shareholder pain after overpaying for Time Warner Cable, and the wholesale failure of Kraft Heinz. Even Shell’s BG Group takeover — often cited as 2015’s success — took years of execution to vindicate. The JPMorgan CFO already flags Middle East turbulence as a risk to deal closure.
Takeaway
Scale is not a strategy. Boards and investors should judge each megadeal on price discipline, strategic fit and balance-sheet digestibility — not on the fact that the music is still playing.
Source: Financial Times, 15 April 2026, The editorial board.