Too late for Starmer to turn the UK back to Europe?
Source · Politics desk
— Summary
Almost two years into his premiership, Sir Keir Starmer has made his boldest public pivot to Europe yet, telling the nation that "Brexit did deep damage to our economy" and promising a "more ambitious" rapprochement. But diplomats and analysts warn the window may have already closed: the package of measures to be agreed at July's EU-UK summit will, by the government's own estimate, lift UK GDP by just 0.3% over the next decade and a half - a fraction of the 4% Brexit hit estimated by the Office for Budget Responsibility (or 8%, per a US study cited by Chancellor Rachel Reeves).
The summit deal so far covers removing food-and-drink export checks and relinking EU and UK carbon pricing. A youth mobility scheme for 18-to-30-year-olds is still under negotiation. EU officials say Labour's "reset" is hampered by sticking to manifesto red lines that rule out a customs union or single market rejoin - "like old wine in new bottles", one diplomat said. The House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee criticised the reset as lacking "direction, definition and drive".
Brussels has little incentive to move faster: "We have a list of 10 priorities that are far higher," said one EU diplomat. Nigel Farage's Reform UK, topping the polls, has vowed to tear up any reset. The first 18 months of talks have "sapped confidence on both sides", with Labour's hoped-for quick wins - like restoring access for touring musicians - rebuffed as "cherry-picking". Source: Financial Times, 21 April 2026, Peter Foster, George Parker and Andy Bounds.
The story in one line. Starmer has finally made closer EU ties his defining political pitch, but the July summit package will deliver only a small fraction of the economic hit Brexit caused - and Brussels has other priorities.
Key numbers
0.3% UK GDP boost from the July EU-UK summit package, over 15 years (government estimate)
4% OBR’s estimated long-run Brexit hit to UK GDP
8% hit estimated by a US study cited by Chancellor Rachel Reeves
2 years Starmer has been in office before this pivot
18 months of “reset” talks have “sapped confidence on both sides”, according to Brussels insiders
18 to 30 age bracket for a youth mobility deal still under negotiation (up to 3 years)
Top of the polls Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which has vowed to tear up any reset
Why it matters
The gap between Reeves’s diagnosis (Brexit cost up to 8% of GDP) and the reset’s projected benefit (0.3%) is now described as “untenable” by analysts. Without a shift on red lines - no customs union, no single market - further progress is blocked. Brussels officials openly doubt Starmer can deliver, particularly as Reform UK rises in the polls. Labour’s early assumption that “because they weren’t the Tories” deeper deals would follow has been flatly rejected.
Takeaway
Starmer’s pivot is politically real but economically modest. For businesses, the food-and-drink border deal and carbon-price relinking are genuine wins, but the structural damage of Brexit will not be reversed by a “reset” within current red lines. The more interesting question is whether a second-term Labour (or any future government) would consider rejoining the customs union - a taboo that even this pivot has not broken.
Source: Financial Times, 21 April 2026, Peter Foster, George Parker and Andy Bounds.