ECB frontrunner Hernández de Cos is most qualified candidate for top job, economists say
Source · Monetary Policy desk
— Summary
Pablo Hernández de Cos — former Bank of Spain governor and, since 2025, general manager of the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements (BIS, the central banks' central bank) — is the most qualified candidate to succeed Christine Lagarde as ECB president, according to a poll of 20 monetary policy experts by London-based think-tank OMFIF. He scored an average mark of 1.77 (1 = highest, 5 = lowest) across nine dimensions including crisis management, leadership and consensus building, narrowly ahead of Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel (1.9), former Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot (1.92) and outgoing French governor François Villeroy de Galhau (1.94). ECB board member Isabel Schnabel came fifth at 2.57.
Lagarde's eight-year term expires only in October 2027, but "a soft lobbying process has already started", OMFIF vice-chair John Orchard told the FT, suggesting a decision could come earlier. The FT reported in February that Lagarde expected to resign early so outgoing French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz could fill the role ahead of the pivotal 2027 French presidential election. The renewed inflation risk from the Iran war may derail that timing — Lagarde told Bloomberg TV: "When there [are] big clouds on the horizon, the captain does not leave the ship."
Hernández de Cos is seen as a centrist with a slight dovish tilt; Nagel and Knot are moderate hawks. Spain and Germany have never held the top job in the ECB's 27-year history, but the European Commission is already run by a German (Ursula von der Leyen), which works against Nagel. Late compromise candidates have often emerged in past races — Lagarde's own 2019 nomination surprised observers. Source: Financial Times, 20 April 2026, Olaf Storbeck.
The story in one line. A poll of 20 monetary policy experts by think-tank OMFIF puts Pablo Hernández de Cos — BIS chief and former Bank of Spain governor — narrowly ahead of three central-bank rivals in the race to succeed Christine Lagarde at the ECB.
Klaas Knot (former Dutch central bank chief): 1.92
François Villeroy de Galhau (outgoing Banque de France governor): 1.94
Isabel Schnabel (ECB board member): 2.57
Poll sample: 20 monetary policy experts via OMFIF (London-based think-tank).
Lagarde’s term expires October 2027 (eight-year term).
Hernández de Cos ran Bank of Spain for 8 years, took over BIS in 2025.
ECB age: 27 years; Spain and Germany — the two largest Eurozone members — have never held the top job.
Why it matters
The ECB presidency sets the price of money for 20 countries. Hernández de Cos’s centrist-with-dovish-tilt profile would slow any return to outright hawkishness; Nagel or Knot would push the ECB harder on inflation. The short-term catalyst is timing: an early Lagarde exit (to allow Macron and Merz to pick her successor before the 2027 French election) would compress the decision window into the next 6–12 months. The Iran war inflation risk is a live threat to that script — Lagarde’s “captain does not leave the ship” line to Bloomberg signals she may stay to manage the shock.
Politics shapes the shortlist. The European Commission is already run by a German (von der Leyen), which traditionally blocks another top EU job going to Germany and undercuts Nagel despite his crisis-management marks. Spain has never held the role, which argues for Hernández de Cos — but as past races (Lagarde 2019) show, a late compromise candidate can always appear.
Takeaway
Until Lagarde signals her departure date, “frontrunner” is a soft title — but OMFIF’s numerical ranking puts Hernández de Cos first on merit. Market-relevant read: a Hernández-de-Cos ECB is marginally more likely to cut when growth weakens, a Nagel/Knot ECB to stay tight against inflation.
Source: Financial Times, 20 April 2026, Olaf Storbeck.