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Retail April 16, 2026

Tesco widens FY27 guidance as Middle East war clouds consumer outlook

Summary

Tesco, the UK's largest supermarket and a FTSE 100 constituent, warned on 16 April 2026 that the war in the Middle East was clouding its outlook for the year to February 2027. The group guided adjusted operating profit to between £3 billion and £3.3 billion — 'a wider range of guidance than we were previously planning' — citing uncertainty over how long the conflict will last and its potential impact on UK households and the broader economy.

Full-year results for the year to February 2026 were broadly flat: adjusted operating profit rose 0.8% to £3.1 billion (at the top of revised estimates, helped by a strong Christmas performance), while revenue climbed 4.6% to £66.6 billion despite rising employment costs and tough competition. Tesco captured 28% of the UK grocery market over the year, according to Worldpanel — its highest share in more than a decade.

The company also announced a further £500 million in cost savings for the coming year, giving it firepower to fund additional promotions. Shares rose 3% on Thursday morning and are up 37% over the past 12 months, taking the market capitalisation to £30 billion. Source: Financial Times, 16 April 2026, Philip Stafford.